Taiwan in the crosshairs

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te speaks at a press conference on the latest round of economic talks with the United States, in Taipei, Taiwan, on February 3, 2026. Credit: REUTERS/Ann Wang

While the world has its eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, China’s gaze is fixed farther east: Taiwan. For decades, Beijing’s “One China” policy has asserted that there is only one sovereign Chinese state and that Taiwan is a breakaway province that must return to mainland control – peacefully if possible, but by force if necessary. Now, are the stars aligning for Beijing to advance that goal?

As US President Donald Trump prioritizes an “America First” trade and defense policy, and global attention shifts elsewhere, China sees an opening to make Taiwan’s resistance to reunification harder to sustain. With two weeks to go until Trump meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, China is deploying a mix of carrots and sticks designed to pull Taiwan closer – without firing a shot. Read more